Betting Against the Odds: Fallacy of Martingale System

For over three hundred years, casino players have had the Martingale as an effective betting strategy at their disposal. Together with other ‘sure-win’ systems created by prominent mathematicians and economists, it might have been enough to ravage gambling houses worldwide.

Yet, betting sites and casinos remain afloat, and we continue witnessing the fact that the house still wins anyway. This is not due to the Martingale’s complexity. On the contrary, the system is pretty simple, and gamblers willingly include it in their betting strategies, no matter if they play in typical brick-and-mortar lobbies in Ireland or on exclusive Charles Morey from BetPokies.

So, should you trust this mathematical approach designed to let a player win sooner or later? Let’s review the Martingale system to reveal its weaknesses that may ruin your bankroll.

The Essence of Martingale System

In the gambling world, the Martingale strategy postulates one simple rule: place a doubled wager after every losing bet. The idea actually works. Imagine we start a Blackjack or Roulette session by wagering 20 dollars. Imagine we lose the bet. Our next move will be to place $40. The winning outcome will let us cover our loss in the previous round.

If we lose again, we’ll double our wager and continue betting until we win. And we will actually win, sooner or later. It’s impossible always to lose, just like it’s impossible always to win. So, should you make betting on sports or house classics with the Martingale system your daily win-money routine? We’re afraid you should not, and here are some reasons why.

Where the Martingale Fails

You might have heard about that legendary case at a Monte Carlo casino where an English player with a shady reputation won a tidy sum, thanks to the Martingale, many people believed. Yet, don’t be too quick to repeat that gambler’s experience and place a million-dollar stake. First, consider the following factors:

• How much your entire bankroll is.
• How much you are going to wager per bet.
• Betting limits at your chosen casino and table.

Each of these factors can affect and potentially ruin your perfect Martingale strategy very quickly. Let’s observe the system’s weak points.

Betting Too Much

You do not need to be a genius mathematician to understand that the use of the Martingale system may help you win significant prizes if you place significant sums. Doubling your stake two or three times is not a problem. However, practice shows that every player suffers from losing streaks occasionally. Such an unlucky streak represents a series of losses coming one after another and may include more than 10 losing bets.

With a $20 bet — a scarcely workable size for the Martingale strategy, you’ll need to wager $5,120 on your eighth round in such a scenario, and no one guarantees that the next toss will be the winning one. You might need to go through another eight or more rounds to win.

Bear also in mind that the end of a losing streak will simply bring your wastage to naught. The Martingale system recommends going back to the initial stake size after a win. However, after you have risked a large amount of money, winning twenty bucks might not impress you. Still, nobody has guaranteed them to you!

Casino Limits

If you choose to bet anything higher than $100, be ready for a rapid rise of your stake, needed for the next move. You might not plan to wager over three thousand dollars after your fifth loss, let alone a stake of half a million dollars or higher.

Furthermore, your casino itself is likely to prohibit bets of such sizes! Even if you are fully committed to rolling high, the site might stop your Martingale series very quickly, and you’ll end up with a loss anyway.

Is There a Balanced Wager Size for the Martingale?

High stakes — even within the casino limits — may rapidly ruin your bankroll. Betting too small is sure to bring a certain profit, but it won’t be rewarding enough. Maybe we only need a reasonable bet size to revive our Martingale scheme, do we?

Scholars put much effort into investigating this matter. For instance, you can apply the so-called Kelly betting formula (introduced by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956) to your Martingale strategy. According to this formula based on sophisticated equations, you should wager 20% of your bankroll to optimize your Martingale sessions. However, they should turn into Anti-Martingale ones, in fact, because the Kelly betting system requires doubling your wager after a win and stepping to the initial bet size after a loss.

Should You Deal With the Martingale System?

The Martingale is a workable strategy in certain cases. Gamblers can actually win with its help if they manage their bankrolls wisely and know when to stop. Yet, like any other betting and pokies strategy, it does not guarantee payouts on a regular basis.

A modern and more reliable strategy is the one offered by John L. Kelly Jr. Here, each of your wagers should be equal to 20% of your entire bankroll, and you must employ the inverse version of the Martingale. Still, remember that gambling is gambling, and no prizes are ensured.